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Note to NY Jets – Never too early for a Sanchez/Tebow Plan

March 26, 2012 By Leave a Comment

“For every action there’s an equal and opposite reaction” effect in the National Football League, and certainly once QB Peyton Manning was released by the Indianapolis Colts, we all knew the ripples would spread far and wide across professional football.  For the better part of two weeks Manning shopped his wares from Denver, to Phoenix, to Miami, to San Francisco, to Nashville and as the time passed, the pressure built and clubs “puckered” to lure the future Hall of Famer to resurrect their fortunes.

“Thanks, now beat it”

Ultimately John Elway and the Denver Broncos held the “golden ticket”.  This single decision catapulted QB Tim Tebow, one of the games top young stars, out of Denver and into the bright lights of the BIG APPLE.  The New York Jets won the “Tebow Sweepstakes” giving a 4th and a 6th round pick, along with (reluctantly) paying back to Denver $2.5 million in salary advance.

The 2nd year quarterback, who became all rage in 2011 with his 4th quarter heroics and unconventional style, was rewarded with a one way ticket to JFK and entry into yet another “Quarterback Controversy”.  Tebow outlasted the beleaguered Kyle Orton to eventually takeover as starter in Week 6, leading Denver to the AFC West title and an upset win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the the playoffs.

Tebow goes up against another stressed out signal caller in New York’s Mark Sanchez.  Sanchez, selected by the Jets in the 2009 NFL Draft with the 5th overall pick, came highly touted by all the pundits and on top mock drafts throughout the national media.  Sanchez and head coach Rex Ryan both arrived in 2009 to reverse the fortunes of Woody Johnson’s team after a one year shot with Brett Favre.

What did you expect?

As a former GM, selection and development of top 10 players can’t be taken lightly, especially under the “old CBA” way of doing business.  Too much financial and opportunity cost is invested.  Every ounce of effort must and should go into the development of young quarterback.  Sanchez has not lived up to expectations of the fans and the media who put him on his pedestal in 2009.  Despite only two seasons removed from a trip to the AFC Championship, he is being questioned from every angle imaginable; leadership, production, dedication.

The arrival of Tebow sends another message.  Exactly what that might be is currently being interpreted by all those following the Jets and NFL football.  It would behoove GM Mike Tannenbaum, head coach Rex Ryan and the rest of the Jets leadership to sit down with both players (perhaps even together) and let them know loud and clear what that message exactly is.

Neither can do it alone

Sanchez has yet to reach the full potential projected after being the second QB selected in 2009.  After consecutive playoffs appearances, New York took a step back towards mediocrity this past season.  The Jets picked the Southern Cal QB even with only a little over a season’s worth of starting experience.  To thrust Sanchez into the situation he’s found himself should have come with a detailed developmental plan, and I don’t and haven’t seen one.

Former Offensive Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is gone and enter former Miami Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano, who left that club without a clear cut quarterback after 4 seasons.  Under the tutelage of Matt Cavanaugh, Sanchez has put up middle to below the pack numbers.  Some within the organization have publicly questioned Sanchez’s commitment to improvement.  Perhaps the addition of Tebow is their way of sending that message.

Tebow has his own struggles.  It’s hard to question the excitement he brought to Denver, but he was never the QB that Elway and John Fox intended to hang their hopes on the future.  His own development as a viable passing threat was temporarily put on hold with an offense transitioned to his own strengths, primarily because he couldn’t execute the base offense.

What’s the plan?

For either young player to thrive this season it will be important that the Jets be upfront and communicate with both exactly what their role will be.  To trade for a 46.5% QB with an 8-8 record and ask him to push a 56.7% incumbent with an 8-8 record, that doesn’t make much football sense.

Square pegs + round holes = don’t fit.

But if the Jets are looking to maximize the inherent qualities of both players to strengthen their 13th rated offense in 2011, it’s never too early to clue both players in on that “developmental plan”.  Otherwise NYJ will likely enter 2012 with two “head cases” under center.

 

 

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FAQ: 2012 NFL Free Agency

March 13, 2012 By Leave a Comment

With free agency starting at 2 p.m. MT on Tuesday, March 13, here are the answers to some frequently asked questions regarding free agency, courtesy of the NFL.

 

Below are the answers to some of the frequently asked questions regarding free agency from the NFL office:

 

For Full Article CLICK HERE

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Why Free Agent Signings Turn Out So Disappointing

March 11, 2012 By Leave a Comment

As we enter into the eve of the NFL’s 2012 Free Agency, I thought you might enjoy this article from my friend Brian Burke over at Advanced NFL Stats.

Adam Archuleta became one of the most sought-after NFL free agents in 2006. Several teams were interested in the playmaking strong safety, but the Redskins won the bidding, making him the highest paid safety in history at the time. Owner Dan Snyder signed-off on giving Archuleta a 6-year $30 million contract, with $10 million guaranteed.

To call the Archuleta signing a bust would be an understatement. He started only 7 games the next season and was traded to Chicago for a 6th-round draft pick the following year. Archuleta never returned to his early-career form, and washed out of the league after the 2007 season.

Although Snyder has a well-known, and well-deserved, reputation for overpaying for disappointing free agents, he’s not alone. There’s a phenomenon of auctions that makes overpaying for top free agent players all too common.

Consider fictional star running back Freddy Adams, a top free-agent in whom several teams are interested. Each of the teams has a hole to fill at his position. The scouts and executives of each team all have their estimations of the player’s value. On a scale of 1 to 10, Team A feels he’s a 7.1 in terms of future expected performance, so they offer $7.1 million per year. Team B estimates Freddy is a 6.2, and offers $6.2 million per year. Team C and Team D think he’s a 4.7 and a 3.8 respectively, and make offers accordingly.

Mr. Adams is no dummy, and decides to go with the high bidder, Team A. 

At this point we can’t know Freddy’s true value, which will be revealed only after he plays out his contract. But as long as the teams’ scouts, coaches, and executives have any degree of competence, we know where his actual value would tend to be. Each team has its own biases and errors, and some will overestimate while some will underestimate his value. It’s very likely Freddy’s true value will lie somewhere between the high and low estimates.

Let’s say that over the course of his contract, Freddy’s true value turns out to be 6.2. Since Team A offered $7.1 million per year, and he was ‘truly’ worth only $6.2 million per year, Freddy was a disappointment on net, worth -$0.9 million per year.

This result was bound to happen. The team that most grossly overestimates a free agent’s value will very likely be the team that offers the most and win the auction. The upshot is that free agents tend to be signed by the teams that erred the most in predicting their true worth. That’s why free agent signings turn out so disappointing so often.

Known as The Winner’s Curse, this phenomenon is a well-documented characteristic of auction-style transactions. Whether the object of the auction is a part of the wireless frequency spectrum, licenses to drill for oil, or securing the rights to a Pro Bowl-caliber safety, the top bidder will likely be the one who most overestimates the value of the prize.

In truth, the Winner’s Curse applies strictly to “common value” auctions, where the prize would be of equal value to all bidders. This is rarely the case in reality, so to account for differing values to bidders, we can add a “synergy” factor to the mix. A player might be of particularly high worth to a team with a single ‘missing piece’, or a speedy pass-rushing linebacker might be of special value to a defense that plays a 3-4.

In the end, however, the synergy value of the prize is just as susceptible to overestimation as its common value. A free agents would be just as disappointing to his team, which would likely be the team that overestimated both the general value and the particular synergy he could bring. (Check out this applet that demonstrates the Winner’s Curse in action. You’ll notice that the synergy factor needs to be extremely high to escape the Curse.)

Once the top free agent is signed in any given year, the market is now ‘set’ for other lesser players. The Winner’s Curse tends to inflate the price of similar goods across the market place, creating a bubble. The real estate or stock markets may not be so different from the free agent market in the NFL. Which home buyer is going to be the one that ends up with that McMansion? The one who overestimates its value the most, that’s who. And with each inflated sale, all home prices inch up one more tiny notch, at least until a market correction comes along.

Bidders who are aware of the Curse can mitigate its effect by suppressing their bids below what they believe is the true value of the prize, a technique known as bid-shaving. This makes it less likely a bidder will end up overpaying, but it also makes it less likely the wise bidder will win the auction. The unsavvy bidder (such as Dan Snyder, perhaps) won’t shave his bids, and becomes that much more likely to win (and overpay for) the prize.

Perhaps the Winner’s Curse explains why top teams tend to build their starting lineups through the top rounds of the draft and not through free agency. It may also explain why draft picks might be better bargains than veteran free-agents with similar expected performance levels.

BY BRIAN BURKE


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Smith hopes addition of Nolan will help defense

March 6, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Falcons coach Mike Smith has been busy working with his new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan.

After evaluating last season’s performance, they are working on a plan to move forward and improve the unit’s level of play.

“I’m very excited about the additions that we’ve added to our staff,” Smith said. “The defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has 14 years as a coordinator and almost 25 years in the National Football League. He’ll be a great resource for me.”

Before tackling the issue of the playoffs, the Falcons’ defensive brain trust must figure out a way to slow down the New Orleans Saints. Smith is 2-6 against the Saints and has watched them win the NFC South title in three of the past four years.

For Full Article CLICK HERE ¦ CBS Sports

 

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The 2008 NFL Draft teaches some lessons to 2012

March 3, 2012 By Leave a Comment

At first glance Vernon Gholston was a “can’t miss” Top 10.  The New York Jets would use his incredible athletic skills to convert to a 3-4 OLB taking him with the 6th overall pick.  As a DE Gholston EPA’d in all 6 events at the NFL Combine.  He blistered the 40 yard dash and easily exceeded peer average in the other 5.

As a LB he excelled as well, though fell short in the #2 correlating statistic to NFL success at the position, 20 Shuttle.  Gholston also tested marginal to below on the HRT in areas of Dedication, Focus, Receptivity to Coaching and Mental Quickness – a prerequisite for a position change I would think.

For Full Article CLICK HERE ¦ The Football Educator

 

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2012 NFL Combine – “What now?”

February 29, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Now that NIC Director Jeff Foster and the rest of his staff are left to clean up after this year’s 2012 NFL Combine, what it is it that we can take away from another week in Indy?

By the way, NIC is actually National Invitational Camp, the fancy term for NFL Combine.  Did you know that NIC is its own corporation and separately owned by all 32 clubs.  The NFL provides the authority for NIC to operate but really has nothing to do with the actual “running” of the Combine.  It’s the crossover ownership of the 32 clubs that draws NFL Network to the front and center, and thus the appearance that the League handles everything.

But I digress.

There were a few things that jumped out at me this year as the prospects put on their show for coaches, scouts, GM’s, owners, media and the fans.  What once was a centralized location for the pooling of team resources to ensure thorough medical examination and assessment has certainly grown into primetime coverage of various aspects of draft evaluation.

But I bet most of you didn’t know that priority #1 for the NFL Combine has always been the Medical Examination.  Always has been, always will be.  To have individual clubs perform the myriad of internal and orthopedic tests administered on some 350 draft prospects from around the country on their own would be logistically and financially impossible.  Imagine drafting a player with an ACL tear, shoulder degeneration or sickle cell anemia.  All 3 of those conditions or traits have been found through medical examinations at Indy.

But I double digress.

No, now the most important event is whatever is being performed at a given moment on television.  The most important interview is not the one with the team that might draft a player, but the one in front of the hoards of national media.  Run a fast forty not to impress the club personnel, but to catch the eye of the commentator that moves you up his board.

Certainly the Combine is more colorful and choreographed than it ever has been.  Recall the days of Red, White and Blue cotton t-shirts vs the form fitting, space age workout gear provided by Under Armor.  And how about the contrast of the concrete backdrop of the RCA Dome to the action packed murals hanging from every camera angle in Lucas Oil Stadium.  Don’t forget the fans cheering in the stands vs the echoes of emptiness as the 13th defensive corner lines up for his 60 yard shuttle run.

Progress is a great thing, as long as you continue moving towards something.  It’s becoming increasingly difficult for club decision makers to block out all the noise emanating from within the Colts’ field house.

Alright, so what did we see?

  1. Perhaps an analogy of Andrew Luck to Mitt Romney?  It’s as if the media has grown tired of all the Luck discussion and is looking for their personal version of Rick Santorum.  Enter RGIII, Robert Griffin III.  After ripping off a 4.41 in the 40 yard dash, the Heisman Trophy winner was almost immediately elevated to the #2 pick in the draft and much to the delight of Jeff Fisher and the St. Louis Rams.
  2. The baffling ability to run “the gauntlet” of twists, turns, and extensions across the field and yet not have the hamstring strength for the 40 yard dash.  I’ve seen many a talented receiver pick their spots at the Combine and then pick their spots in the season as well.
  3. Speaking of not participating, it felt as if the number of DNP’s was up this year (though I have yet to confirm).  After NFL Network began televising all the physical attribute tests, it seemed that players and their agents began having second thoughts regarding tender quads, sprained ankles or whatever other malady was inflicting their ability to perform.  It became “cool” again to workout at Indy.  But with the new CBA all but locking down the price of rookie contracts, bypassing a chance to “stumble” appears to be back.  Why risk falling a round or two with a bad 40 time?
  4. Finally, the continued misinterpretation of what is actually going on out on the floor.   A QB blisters the 40, a DT bungles the 3 Cone and 2 corners show inconsistency in the attributes that matter (quickness & explosion).  Yet the 40 doesn’t correlate to QB success, 3 cone is the most significant identifier of success for DT’s and DC’s have the most prerequisite standards of any position (requiring the most athletic consistency across the board).

On to the Pro Days!

 

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Sports lawyer Cornwell hired by NFL Coaches Assn.

February 23, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The NFL Coaches Association has hired sports lawyer David Cornwell as its executive director.

Cornwell has represented both the NFL and the union as well as several prominent NFL players, including Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. He also was a candidate to become executive director of the NFL Players Association in 2009, a job that went to DeMaurice Smith.

For Full Article CLICK HERE ¦ NFL.com

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NFL Free Agency – Focus on Youth & the Pass

February 17, 2012 By Leave a Comment

With NFL’s Free Agency period beginning on March 13th, this is probably a good time to quickly review some of the aspects of Free Agency and what players might be headed to “greener pastures” in 2012.

As per the new CBA the following definition remains in effect for UFA’s.

Section 1. Unrestricted Free Agents:

(a) Subject to the provisions of Section 5 below and of Article 10, any player with four  or  more  Accrued  Seasons  shall,  at the expiration of his Player Contract, become an Unrestricted Free Agent. Such player shall be completely free to negotiate and sign a Player Contract with any Club, and any Club shall be completely free to negotiate and sign a Player Contract with such player, without penalty or restriction, including, but not limited to, Draft Choice Compensation between Clubs or First Refusal Rights of any kind, subject to the signing period set forth below.

And for further definitive explanation, here is Accrued Season.

Section 1. Accrued Seasons Calculation:

(a) For the purposes of calculating Accrued Seasons under this Agreement, a player shall receive one Accrued Season for each season during which he was on, or should have been on, full pay status for a total of six or more regular season games, but which, irrespective of the player’s pay status, shall not include games for which the player was on: (i) the Exempt Commissioner Permission List, (ii) the Reserve PUP List as a result of a nonfootball injury, or (iii) a Club’s Practice Squad.

Missed Opportunity

Very little changed as a result of last season’s lockout and subsequent negotiations regarding Unrestricted Free Agency.  One thing that could have had a major effect on how teams are built and stay in line with the philosophy of drafting and developing young players would have been to move the start of Free Agency behind the College Draft.

Clubs could then fill areas of need through the annual selection process and then target one or two significant Free Agent acquisitions afterward.  Long time “capologists” have felt this to be the number one way to help curb out of control or overspending in this market.  The money would still be available for the veteran players, but Personnel Departments might make wiser decisions already knowing where the draft has filled in their roster.

But that rather logical aspect didn’t happen and we have the same procedural Free Agent process for the next 10 years.

So where should most clubs point their attention?

QB – The two big names will be resigned by their own clubs; the Saints’ Drew Brees and the 49er’s Alex Smith.  The talk is where Packer backup Matt Flynn will land after his one game “wunder performance” against Detroit in Week 16.  As is with everything in the NFL, hype has put Flynn at the top of the affordable lists.  Recall the last similar situation with Kansas City QB Matt Cassel, the “can’t miss” backup to Tom Brady in New England.

WR- In today’s NFL Offensive Passing Efficiency is “key” to consistently winning.  Those players that bring you a “bang for the buck” with each reception are paramount to a successful attack.  New Orleans’ Marques Colston is at the top of the list.  At 6’4” 225 lbs, Colston is a matchup monster.  There are those with bigger statistical numbers, but I love his consistency and physical presence.  San Diego’s Vincent Jackson is right there with him for me as well.

OT – Rounding a sound passing attack is the importance of protection and limiting pressure/sacks on your quarterback.  A savvy and sound veteran Offensive Tackle can do just that.  The list is heavy with numbers, thin with impact talent.  Two stick out with flash production tempered by injury questions.  Yet you have to like their youth and physical makeup – Buffalo’s Demetrius Bell and San Diego’s Jared Gaither.  I tend to lean towards the athletic Bell over the massive Gaither.

CB – Defensive Pass Efficiency correlates 4th in overall predictivity of victory.  I saw what the addition of a “shut down” corner can give your defense firsthand in Champ Bailey.  Kansas City’s Brandon Carr is not a “pick machine” (8 over 4 years) but his size and physicalness tend to make opponent’s WR threats disappear.  Hard to imagine the defensive minded Romeo Crennel letting this one leave.

DE – Finally, it’s the heat and pressure that gets the QB “out of the kitchen” and no one has brought it better than Houston’s DE/LB Mario Williams.  Once thought of as “Charley’s mistake”, Williams has tallied 53 sacks in his career, but no double digits since 12 in 2008.  At 6’6” 290 lbs, he can push/press a pocket and just make it hard to throw over him.

If you’re gonna spend the money, you better focus on the PASS (both sides).

 

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Peyton Manning Should Demand Release Instead of Playing Jim Irsay’s Games

February 17, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Peyton Manning and Jim Irsay have been doing a public relations dance over the past couple weeks as the deadline to pay the quarterback’s bonus approaches. Instead of getting caught up in the Indianapolis Colts owner’s web of double talk, Manning should just demand his release and move on.

Everybody, including fans of the Colts, understand the chances of Manning returning to the team next season are slim to none—and it’s closer to none. There’s no reason to keep playing it off as if the sides might suddenly reconcile and go back to the way things were.

For Full Article CLICK HERE ¦ Bleacher Report

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Combine Preparation – Building the Perfect Beast

February 11, 2012 By Leave a Comment

More than just a “workout”

National Invitational Camp, NFL Combine, INDY Combine, The Combine.  What was once a “sub component” of draft preparation has now become a circled date on the NFL’s calendar of annual events.

There was a time when only a glancing eye was turned towards Indianapolis the middle of February.  But with the advent of its own TV Network and the need for 24/7 programming, the NFL has flipped what was once a “scouting workout” being televised, into a “televised workout” being scouted.

Gone are the days when coaches and scouts disappeared into the “Crossroads of America” for “A week of doing who knows what?”  This is “PRIME TIME” as Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com wrote this past February;

As if we needed any more evidence that the NFL is more popular than ever, the league today issued a press release touting all-time high ratings for the Scouting Combine on NFL Network.

A total of 6.6 million viewers watched the Combine on NFL Network this year, a 27 percent increase over the 5.2 million viewers last year. On Sunday, when the quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers were working out, an average of more than 400,000 people were watching at any given time.

Big Business

Make no mistake, this annual gathering is not big, but rather HUGE business.  The Chamber of Commerce of Indianapolis recognizes the financial impact of all 32 NFL clubs; their staff, coaches and personnel, along with the hoards of media, agents, players and fans descending for a week upon the shops, restaurants and hotels of the downtown Entertainment District.  Why do you think they’ve fought so hard to keep the event out of Miami, Dallas or Los Angeles?

Agents lobby long and hard to ensure their players are one of the some 350 invitees of the selection committee.  Exclusion is like being “voted off the island” and pundits immediately begin to place those “outsider” prospects into the 7th round or undrafted free agent status.

Crash course makeover

An entire “cottage industry” has spun off the medicals, interviews and on field workouts at Lucas Oil Stadium.  People with no affiliation or experience in pro football have created entire sub-careers surrounding combine preparation.  Former coaches, scouts and administrators have left the game and leveraged their knowledge of INDY to help agents with combine preparation.

In the recruiting process of elite athletes, agents are now EXPECTED to supply combine preparation through personal training for “fitness and drills”.  They hire tutors on the finer points of taking the Wonderlic Test, a common measurement of so-called “intelligence” by NFL clubs.  They are coached on the interview process; not only how to answer specific questions, but also tips on annunciation, body language and eye contact.  Some go as far as to visit the local tanning booth for a quick “bake” or “spray on” before their combine picture (wearing only official Under Armor workout shorts) is taken.

Agents understand they can be hired and fired over the course of the combine preparation process.  Remember, the draft is still two months away.  A bad showing and the blame falls somewhere.

What’s it worth?

The bigger question is, “What are we doing?”.  The original intent of the NFL Combine was to bring all the top prospects to one centralized location for a thorough physical using the “combined” medical resources of all 32 teams.  Since then, as a result of all the pre-draft hype, no chance is taken, no stone left unturned to ensure total combine preparation.

And what are the coaches and scouts ultimately seeing?  Is this an accurate representation of the player that caught a scout’s eye back in September or October?  Or is this rather a fabricated “placard of a player” hoping to dupe teams into drafting them higher than their actual worth?

 

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