May 23, 2013

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Matt Forte and Guaranteed Deals

May 30, 2012 By Leave a Comment

A fascinating look at the career of Matt Forte written by Mike Freeman of CBSSports.com. Do you believe guaranteed deals should be given to certain NFL players? In the case of Forte, he’s been playing hard for many years and now the Bears may not resign him. Is this part of the game or should players be protected?

 

Photo: US Presswire

You are Matt Forte. You are, for the moment, confused. You are also angry. It’s understandable. Your team is selling you out.

The Bears asked you to touch the ball some 1,200 times because you were versatile and good and didn’t complain about the sometimes crappy offensive line that opened holes as thick as a sliver of cheese.

No one is going to feel sorry for a football player who makes millions of dollars while the anemic economy destroys lives and careers. But football is different. It’s always been different. The normal rules don’t apply just like they don’t to actors. So in football’s insular world, Forte is getting screwed.

If you want to understand why NFL players never, ever trust management or why they hold out, look at the Forte case. If you really want to know why the union constantly fights management, look at Forte. If you want to understand why NFL players not receiving guaranteed contracts is practically criminal, again, Forte.

It’s almost comical. The Bears run Forte into the ground and then leak to the media they’re concerned about giving Forte a long-term deal because of concerns over his knee. What the Bears are doing is like a guy running up his credit card bill buying lap dances and Gummi Bears and then blaming Visa.

Look closely at that Bears team. The defense has been solid but not great. The quarterback situation, in recent years, has been erratic. Bears receivers? Mostly just OK. It’s Forte who has been the one constant threat (Devin Hester doesn’t touch the ball enough to be on Forte’s threat level). He’s carried this Bears team.

Forte isn’t the biggest or the strongest or the fastest back but he’s among the most versatile. He became the first Bears runner to make the Pro Bowl since 1991 doing so by being as big a pass-catching threat as he is a running one. Strictly in terms of versatility only Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy are better.

The Bears sucked the life out of Forte and that’s what they should have done. Don’t feel sorry for him but then the Bears, immersed in a contract squabble, repaid Forte’s loyalty with a nice piece of nastiness.

The team recently leaked it was concerned Forte’s knees might not hold up for the long term. It’s one thing to be concerned about handing Forte a multi-year deal instead of the one-year tender but it’s another to undercut your star player who has been nothing but loyal.

Again, it’s Chicago’s right to let Forte walk. It’s also fair to privately wonder if previously sprained knee ligaments will be any sort of future impediment but it’s dirty pool to leak those concerns to the media anonymously as a way of trying to injure Forte’s earning potential. The Bears weren’t concerned about Forte’s durability when they were running those knees into the turf.

Forte was so angered by what the Bears did he released a video of him training by pulling a sled holding 100 pounds up a hill. Shouldn’t have to come to something like that.

“Matt Forte is among the most, if not the most, durable, all-purpose running back in the NFL,” Forte’s agent, Adisa Bakari told the Chicago Sun-Times. “The 2011 season was the first season of his career that he missed any games. Had the Bears been playoff contenders, he could have returned for the balance of the season. To question his durability at this stage in his career is absurd.” And hypocritical.

You are Matt Forte. You are, for the moment, confused. You are also angry. It’s understandable. Your team is selling you out.

After riding you into the ground.

 

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NFL passes new pad rules for players

May 23, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Getty Images

To further the discussion about the NFL’s new pad rules, I’d like to know what you think. The idea, of course, is that additional pads will cut down on injuries. Some players are against the rule change while owners are mostly for it. Here’s the Associated Press article explaining the rule change that will occur in the 2013 season.

By BARRY WILNER, AP Pro Football Writer

ATLANTA (AP) — The NFL made thigh and knee pads mandatory equipment for the 2013 season, something the players’ union was not pleased with.

Atlanta Falcons president Rich McKay, chairman of the competition committee, said Tuesday at an owners meeting that because this is a playing rule, the league can apply it unilaterally.

“We have a vote of the membership and can implement,” McKay said. “Some of us felt we were remiss that we took it out of the rule book — high school and college makes it mandatory — and in our mind that is how it should be and will be in 2013.

“We have some work to do with the union.”

McKay said the league will meet with NFL Players Association representatives on the issue, something they have discussed in the past.

But the NFLPA argued that the move should be negotiated.

“Any change in working conditions is a collectively bargained issue,” the union said. “While the NFL is focused on one element of health and safety today, the NFLPA believes that health and safety requires a comprehensive approach and commitment. We are engaged in and monitor many different issues, such as players’ access to medical records, prescription usage and the situation with professional football’s first responders, NFL referees.

“We always look forward to meeting with the NFL to discuss any and all matters related to player health and safety.”

If the pads rule does go into effect on the field, it still won’t be until next year so equipment manufacturers can work on safety and comfort.

McKay couldn’t see any negatives to adding the thigh and knee pads.

“There’s no downside, they have to add some sort of protection,” he said. “In our football system, everyone wears them up to our game. Common sense tells you it has to be safer for (protection against) thigh injuries and knee bruises. If players have worn it in Pop Warner, high school and college … from a safety standpoint it is time to put it back in.”

Former All-Pro safety Troy Vincent, now an NFL vice president, explained why there could be pushback from the players.

“It’s psychological. Less pads you are faster, skinnier, that’s just the way I was introduced to the (pro) game,” he said. “It’s a culture shift. They will adjust.”

Should a player not have the pads on when he enters a game, he will be sent off the field by a game official.

“It’s the same as if he ran on without a helmet,” McKay said. “It is a safety rule.”

The owners also voted to move the trading deadline from after Week 6 to after Week 8, and to allow one “marquee” player placed on injured reserve to return to practice after the sixth game and to the lineup after the eighth game. That player must be on the 53-man roster after the final preseason cut.

Terrell Suggs, the 2011 Defensive Player of the Year, could fall into that category. Suggs recently underwent surgery for a torn Achilles tendon. If the Ravens believe Suggs can make it back in midseason, as the linebacker has predicted, they could use the IR special designation for him.

AP Sports Writer Charles Odum contributed to this story.

 

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Who is the most indispensable player in the NFL today?

May 22, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Over at NFL.com, a discussion is going about what player is most necessary to his team.

“With the New Orleans Saints beginning voluntary organized team activities on Tuesday, QB Drew Brees will be absent as part of an ongoing contract dispute. This begs the question: Who is the most indispensable player to his team in the NFL today?”

Some of the experts’ choices include:

Bucky Brooks on the Peyton Manning & the Denver Broncos: “Peyton Manning is the most indispensable player in the NFL heading into next season. Even though he has yet to take a snap for the Denver Broncos, his absence would cripple the team’s postseason hopes. John Fox and Mike McCoy have rebuilt the offense around Manning’s skill set and preferences, and the team lacks a competent backup quarterback to run the system in his absence.

Not trying to downplay McCoy’s ability to get another quarterback ready to play, but I can’t imagine the Broncos thriving without Manning under center.”

Charley Casserly on Drew Brees & the New Orleans Saints: “I will go with Drew Brees. The loss of Sean Payton certainly will add to his importance this year, but in any year Brees is one of those players who elevates the performance of the whole team. The Saints’ offense doesn’t feature a receiver you have to double. They don’t have a true No. 1 RB who can take over a game running the ball. Their offensive tackles — a huge key in pass protection — are average. RB Darren Sproles and TE Jimmy Graham are legit threats in the passing game, though. But the key to New Orleans’ success on offense is Brees’ ability to spread the ball around and keep the defense off balance.

The Saints need their offense to operate at a high level to compensate for a mediocre defense. In addition, the Saints have an unproven backup in Chase Daniel.”

Who do you think is indispensable? Leave a comment here or join the conversation on NFL.com.

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Note to NY Jets – Never too early for a Sanchez/Tebow Plan

March 26, 2012 By Leave a Comment

“For every action there’s an equal and opposite reaction” effect in the National Football League, and certainly once QB Peyton Manning was released by the Indianapolis Colts, we all knew the ripples would spread far and wide across professional football.  For the better part of two weeks Manning shopped his wares from Denver, to Phoenix, to Miami, to San Francisco, to Nashville and as the time passed, the pressure built and clubs “puckered” to lure the future Hall of Famer to resurrect their fortunes.

“Thanks, now beat it”

Ultimately John Elway and the Denver Broncos held the “golden ticket”.  This single decision catapulted QB Tim Tebow, one of the games top young stars, out of Denver and into the bright lights of the BIG APPLE.  The New York Jets won the “Tebow Sweepstakes” giving a 4th and a 6th round pick, along with (reluctantly) paying back to Denver $2.5 million in salary advance.

The 2nd year quarterback, who became all rage in 2011 with his 4th quarter heroics and unconventional style, was rewarded with a one way ticket to JFK and entry into yet another “Quarterback Controversy”.  Tebow outlasted the beleaguered Kyle Orton to eventually takeover as starter in Week 6, leading Denver to the AFC West title and an upset win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the the playoffs.

Tebow goes up against another stressed out signal caller in New York’s Mark Sanchez.  Sanchez, selected by the Jets in the 2009 NFL Draft with the 5th overall pick, came highly touted by all the pundits and on top mock drafts throughout the national media.  Sanchez and head coach Rex Ryan both arrived in 2009 to reverse the fortunes of Woody Johnson’s team after a one year shot with Brett Favre.

What did you expect?

As a former GM, selection and development of top 10 players can’t be taken lightly, especially under the “old CBA” way of doing business.  Too much financial and opportunity cost is invested.  Every ounce of effort must and should go into the development of young quarterback.  Sanchez has not lived up to expectations of the fans and the media who put him on his pedestal in 2009.  Despite only two seasons removed from a trip to the AFC Championship, he is being questioned from every angle imaginable; leadership, production, dedication.

The arrival of Tebow sends another message.  Exactly what that might be is currently being interpreted by all those following the Jets and NFL football.  It would behoove GM Mike Tannenbaum, head coach Rex Ryan and the rest of the Jets leadership to sit down with both players (perhaps even together) and let them know loud and clear what that message exactly is.

Neither can do it alone

Sanchez has yet to reach the full potential projected after being the second QB selected in 2009.  After consecutive playoffs appearances, New York took a step back towards mediocrity this past season.  The Jets picked the Southern Cal QB even with only a little over a season’s worth of starting experience.  To thrust Sanchez into the situation he’s found himself should have come with a detailed developmental plan, and I don’t and haven’t seen one.

Former Offensive Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is gone and enter former Miami Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano, who left that club without a clear cut quarterback after 4 seasons.  Under the tutelage of Matt Cavanaugh, Sanchez has put up middle to below the pack numbers.  Some within the organization have publicly questioned Sanchez’s commitment to improvement.  Perhaps the addition of Tebow is their way of sending that message.

Tebow has his own struggles.  It’s hard to question the excitement he brought to Denver, but he was never the QB that Elway and John Fox intended to hang their hopes on the future.  His own development as a viable passing threat was temporarily put on hold with an offense transitioned to his own strengths, primarily because he couldn’t execute the base offense.

What’s the plan?

For either young player to thrive this season it will be important that the Jets be upfront and communicate with both exactly what their role will be.  To trade for a 46.5% QB with an 8-8 record and ask him to push a 56.7% incumbent with an 8-8 record, that doesn’t make much football sense.

Square pegs + round holes = don’t fit.

But if the Jets are looking to maximize the inherent qualities of both players to strengthen their 13th rated offense in 2011, it’s never too early to clue both players in on that “developmental plan”.  Otherwise NYJ will likely enter 2012 with two “head cases” under center.

 

 

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2012 NFL Free Agency: Projecting the Denver Broncos with Peyton Manning

March 22, 2012 By Leave a Comment

On March 7th, a teary-eyed Peyton Manning announced that he and the Indianapolis Colts, the only NFL team he had ever played for, would be parting ways. A mere 13 days later, Manning took to the podium again to announce he had joined the Denver Broncos.

Just as he’s been on the field since joining the Colts in 1998, Manning was an efficient and calculated decision-maker in his pursuit of a new home. NFL fans that experienced one too many Brett Favre off-seasons will be forever in his debt for the brevity of the resolution.

For Full Article  Bleacher Report

 

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FAQ: 2012 NFL Free Agency

March 13, 2012 By Leave a Comment

With free agency starting at 2 p.m. MT on Tuesday, March 13, here are the answers to some frequently asked questions regarding free agency, courtesy of the NFL.

 

Below are the answers to some of the frequently asked questions regarding free agency from the NFL office:

 

For Full Article CLICK HERE

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Why Free Agent Signings Turn Out So Disappointing

March 11, 2012 By Leave a Comment

As we enter into the eve of the NFL’s 2012 Free Agency, I thought you might enjoy this article from my friend Brian Burke over at Advanced NFL Stats.

Adam Archuleta became one of the most sought-after NFL free agents in 2006. Several teams were interested in the playmaking strong safety, but the Redskins won the bidding, making him the highest paid safety in history at the time. Owner Dan Snyder signed-off on giving Archuleta a 6-year $30 million contract, with $10 million guaranteed.

To call the Archuleta signing a bust would be an understatement. He started only 7 games the next season and was traded to Chicago for a 6th-round draft pick the following year. Archuleta never returned to his early-career form, and washed out of the league after the 2007 season.

Although Snyder has a well-known, and well-deserved, reputation for overpaying for disappointing free agents, he’s not alone. There’s a phenomenon of auctions that makes overpaying for top free agent players all too common.

Consider fictional star running back Freddy Adams, a top free-agent in whom several teams are interested. Each of the teams has a hole to fill at his position. The scouts and executives of each team all have their estimations of the player’s value. On a scale of 1 to 10, Team A feels he’s a 7.1 in terms of future expected performance, so they offer $7.1 million per year. Team B estimates Freddy is a 6.2, and offers $6.2 million per year. Team C and Team D think he’s a 4.7 and a 3.8 respectively, and make offers accordingly.

Mr. Adams is no dummy, and decides to go with the high bidder, Team A. 

At this point we can’t know Freddy’s true value, which will be revealed only after he plays out his contract. But as long as the teams’ scouts, coaches, and executives have any degree of competence, we know where his actual value would tend to be. Each team has its own biases and errors, and some will overestimate while some will underestimate his value. It’s very likely Freddy’s true value will lie somewhere between the high and low estimates.

Let’s say that over the course of his contract, Freddy’s true value turns out to be 6.2. Since Team A offered $7.1 million per year, and he was ‘truly’ worth only $6.2 million per year, Freddy was a disappointment on net, worth -$0.9 million per year.

This result was bound to happen. The team that most grossly overestimates a free agent’s value will very likely be the team that offers the most and win the auction. The upshot is that free agents tend to be signed by the teams that erred the most in predicting their true worth. That’s why free agent signings turn out so disappointing so often.

Known as The Winner’s Curse, this phenomenon is a well-documented characteristic of auction-style transactions. Whether the object of the auction is a part of the wireless frequency spectrum, licenses to drill for oil, or securing the rights to a Pro Bowl-caliber safety, the top bidder will likely be the one who most overestimates the value of the prize.

In truth, the Winner’s Curse applies strictly to “common value” auctions, where the prize would be of equal value to all bidders. This is rarely the case in reality, so to account for differing values to bidders, we can add a “synergy” factor to the mix. A player might be of particularly high worth to a team with a single ‘missing piece’, or a speedy pass-rushing linebacker might be of special value to a defense that plays a 3-4.

In the end, however, the synergy value of the prize is just as susceptible to overestimation as its common value. A free agents would be just as disappointing to his team, which would likely be the team that overestimated both the general value and the particular synergy he could bring. (Check out this applet that demonstrates the Winner’s Curse in action. You’ll notice that the synergy factor needs to be extremely high to escape the Curse.)

Once the top free agent is signed in any given year, the market is now ‘set’ for other lesser players. The Winner’s Curse tends to inflate the price of similar goods across the market place, creating a bubble. The real estate or stock markets may not be so different from the free agent market in the NFL. Which home buyer is going to be the one that ends up with that McMansion? The one who overestimates its value the most, that’s who. And with each inflated sale, all home prices inch up one more tiny notch, at least until a market correction comes along.

Bidders who are aware of the Curse can mitigate its effect by suppressing their bids below what they believe is the true value of the prize, a technique known as bid-shaving. This makes it less likely a bidder will end up overpaying, but it also makes it less likely the wise bidder will win the auction. The unsavvy bidder (such as Dan Snyder, perhaps) won’t shave his bids, and becomes that much more likely to win (and overpay for) the prize.

Perhaps the Winner’s Curse explains why top teams tend to build their starting lineups through the top rounds of the draft and not through free agency. It may also explain why draft picks might be better bargains than veteran free-agents with similar expected performance levels.

BY BRIAN BURKE


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2012 Salary Cap to Stay Flat

March 11, 2012 By Leave a Comment

With free agency set to start on Tuesday teams have been wondering how much money they will have to spend. The cap number is in, and it’s a number that’s not much bigger than in 2011. The 2012 cap will be $120.6 million, up only $225k over the 2011 cap according to Fox’s Jay Glazer. The NFL and Players Union were working to together to make that number larger, but couldn’t get anything done.

For Full Article CLICK HERE ¦  NFL Gridiron Gab

 

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The 2008 NFL Draft teaches some lessons to 2012

March 3, 2012 By Leave a Comment

At first glance Vernon Gholston was a “can’t miss” Top 10.  The New York Jets would use his incredible athletic skills to convert to a 3-4 OLB taking him with the 6th overall pick.  As a DE Gholston EPA’d in all 6 events at the NFL Combine.  He blistered the 40 yard dash and easily exceeded peer average in the other 5.

As a LB he excelled as well, though fell short in the #2 correlating statistic to NFL success at the position, 20 Shuttle.  Gholston also tested marginal to below on the HRT in areas of Dedication, Focus, Receptivity to Coaching and Mental Quickness – a prerequisite for a position change I would think.

For Full Article CLICK HERE ¦ The Football Educator

 

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2012 NFL Combine – “What now?”

February 29, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Now that NIC Director Jeff Foster and the rest of his staff are left to clean up after this year’s 2012 NFL Combine, what it is it that we can take away from another week in Indy?

By the way, NIC is actually National Invitational Camp, the fancy term for NFL Combine.  Did you know that NIC is its own corporation and separately owned by all 32 clubs.  The NFL provides the authority for NIC to operate but really has nothing to do with the actual “running” of the Combine.  It’s the crossover ownership of the 32 clubs that draws NFL Network to the front and center, and thus the appearance that the League handles everything.

But I digress.

There were a few things that jumped out at me this year as the prospects put on their show for coaches, scouts, GM’s, owners, media and the fans.  What once was a centralized location for the pooling of team resources to ensure thorough medical examination and assessment has certainly grown into primetime coverage of various aspects of draft evaluation.

But I bet most of you didn’t know that priority #1 for the NFL Combine has always been the Medical Examination.  Always has been, always will be.  To have individual clubs perform the myriad of internal and orthopedic tests administered on some 350 draft prospects from around the country on their own would be logistically and financially impossible.  Imagine drafting a player with an ACL tear, shoulder degeneration or sickle cell anemia.  All 3 of those conditions or traits have been found through medical examinations at Indy.

But I double digress.

No, now the most important event is whatever is being performed at a given moment on television.  The most important interview is not the one with the team that might draft a player, but the one in front of the hoards of national media.  Run a fast forty not to impress the club personnel, but to catch the eye of the commentator that moves you up his board.

Certainly the Combine is more colorful and choreographed than it ever has been.  Recall the days of Red, White and Blue cotton t-shirts vs the form fitting, space age workout gear provided by Under Armor.  And how about the contrast of the concrete backdrop of the RCA Dome to the action packed murals hanging from every camera angle in Lucas Oil Stadium.  Don’t forget the fans cheering in the stands vs the echoes of emptiness as the 13th defensive corner lines up for his 60 yard shuttle run.

Progress is a great thing, as long as you continue moving towards something.  It’s becoming increasingly difficult for club decision makers to block out all the noise emanating from within the Colts’ field house.

Alright, so what did we see?

  1. Perhaps an analogy of Andrew Luck to Mitt Romney?  It’s as if the media has grown tired of all the Luck discussion and is looking for their personal version of Rick Santorum.  Enter RGIII, Robert Griffin III.  After ripping off a 4.41 in the 40 yard dash, the Heisman Trophy winner was almost immediately elevated to the #2 pick in the draft and much to the delight of Jeff Fisher and the St. Louis Rams.
  2. The baffling ability to run “the gauntlet” of twists, turns, and extensions across the field and yet not have the hamstring strength for the 40 yard dash.  I’ve seen many a talented receiver pick their spots at the Combine and then pick their spots in the season as well.
  3. Speaking of not participating, it felt as if the number of DNP’s was up this year (though I have yet to confirm).  After NFL Network began televising all the physical attribute tests, it seemed that players and their agents began having second thoughts regarding tender quads, sprained ankles or whatever other malady was inflicting their ability to perform.  It became “cool” again to workout at Indy.  But with the new CBA all but locking down the price of rookie contracts, bypassing a chance to “stumble” appears to be back.  Why risk falling a round or two with a bad 40 time?
  4. Finally, the continued misinterpretation of what is actually going on out on the floor.   A QB blisters the 40, a DT bungles the 3 Cone and 2 corners show inconsistency in the attributes that matter (quickness & explosion).  Yet the 40 doesn’t correlate to QB success, 3 cone is the most significant identifier of success for DT’s and DC’s have the most prerequisite standards of any position (requiring the most athletic consistency across the board).

On to the Pro Days!

 

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