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Note to NY Jets – Never too early for a Sanchez/Tebow Plan

March 26, 2012 By Leave a Comment

“For every action there’s an equal and opposite reaction” effect in the National Football League, and certainly once QB Peyton Manning was released by the Indianapolis Colts, we all knew the ripples would spread far and wide across professional football.  For the better part of two weeks Manning shopped his wares from Denver, to Phoenix, to Miami, to San Francisco, to Nashville and as the time passed, the pressure built and clubs “puckered” to lure the future Hall of Famer to resurrect their fortunes.

“Thanks, now beat it”

Ultimately John Elway and the Denver Broncos held the “golden ticket”.  This single decision catapulted QB Tim Tebow, one of the games top young stars, out of Denver and into the bright lights of the BIG APPLE.  The New York Jets won the “Tebow Sweepstakes” giving a 4th and a 6th round pick, along with (reluctantly) paying back to Denver $2.5 million in salary advance.

The 2nd year quarterback, who became all rage in 2011 with his 4th quarter heroics and unconventional style, was rewarded with a one way ticket to JFK and entry into yet another “Quarterback Controversy”.  Tebow outlasted the beleaguered Kyle Orton to eventually takeover as starter in Week 6, leading Denver to the AFC West title and an upset win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the the playoffs.

Tebow goes up against another stressed out signal caller in New York’s Mark Sanchez.  Sanchez, selected by the Jets in the 2009 NFL Draft with the 5th overall pick, came highly touted by all the pundits and on top mock drafts throughout the national media.  Sanchez and head coach Rex Ryan both arrived in 2009 to reverse the fortunes of Woody Johnson’s team after a one year shot with Brett Favre.

What did you expect?

As a former GM, selection and development of top 10 players can’t be taken lightly, especially under the “old CBA” way of doing business.  Too much financial and opportunity cost is invested.  Every ounce of effort must and should go into the development of young quarterback.  Sanchez has not lived up to expectations of the fans and the media who put him on his pedestal in 2009.  Despite only two seasons removed from a trip to the AFC Championship, he is being questioned from every angle imaginable; leadership, production, dedication.

The arrival of Tebow sends another message.  Exactly what that might be is currently being interpreted by all those following the Jets and NFL football.  It would behoove GM Mike Tannenbaum, head coach Rex Ryan and the rest of the Jets leadership to sit down with both players (perhaps even together) and let them know loud and clear what that message exactly is.

Neither can do it alone

Sanchez has yet to reach the full potential projected after being the second QB selected in 2009.  After consecutive playoffs appearances, New York took a step back towards mediocrity this past season.  The Jets picked the Southern Cal QB even with only a little over a season’s worth of starting experience.  To thrust Sanchez into the situation he’s found himself should have come with a detailed developmental plan, and I don’t and haven’t seen one.

Former Offensive Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is gone and enter former Miami Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano, who left that club without a clear cut quarterback after 4 seasons.  Under the tutelage of Matt Cavanaugh, Sanchez has put up middle to below the pack numbers.  Some within the organization have publicly questioned Sanchez’s commitment to improvement.  Perhaps the addition of Tebow is their way of sending that message.

Tebow has his own struggles.  It’s hard to question the excitement he brought to Denver, but he was never the QB that Elway and John Fox intended to hang their hopes on the future.  His own development as a viable passing threat was temporarily put on hold with an offense transitioned to his own strengths, primarily because he couldn’t execute the base offense.

What’s the plan?

For either young player to thrive this season it will be important that the Jets be upfront and communicate with both exactly what their role will be.  To trade for a 46.5% QB with an 8-8 record and ask him to push a 56.7% incumbent with an 8-8 record, that doesn’t make much football sense.

Square pegs + round holes = don’t fit.

But if the Jets are looking to maximize the inherent qualities of both players to strengthen their 13th rated offense in 2011, it’s never too early to clue both players in on that “developmental plan”.  Otherwise NYJ will likely enter 2012 with two “head cases” under center.

 

 

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Why Free Agent Signings Turn Out So Disappointing

March 11, 2012 By Leave a Comment

As we enter into the eve of the NFL’s 2012 Free Agency, I thought you might enjoy this article from my friend Brian Burke over at Advanced NFL Stats.

Adam Archuleta became one of the most sought-after NFL free agents in 2006. Several teams were interested in the playmaking strong safety, but the Redskins won the bidding, making him the highest paid safety in history at the time. Owner Dan Snyder signed-off on giving Archuleta a 6-year $30 million contract, with $10 million guaranteed.

To call the Archuleta signing a bust would be an understatement. He started only 7 games the next season and was traded to Chicago for a 6th-round draft pick the following year. Archuleta never returned to his early-career form, and washed out of the league after the 2007 season.

Although Snyder has a well-known, and well-deserved, reputation for overpaying for disappointing free agents, he’s not alone. There’s a phenomenon of auctions that makes overpaying for top free agent players all too common.

Consider fictional star running back Freddy Adams, a top free-agent in whom several teams are interested. Each of the teams has a hole to fill at his position. The scouts and executives of each team all have their estimations of the player’s value. On a scale of 1 to 10, Team A feels he’s a 7.1 in terms of future expected performance, so they offer $7.1 million per year. Team B estimates Freddy is a 6.2, and offers $6.2 million per year. Team C and Team D think he’s a 4.7 and a 3.8 respectively, and make offers accordingly.

Mr. Adams is no dummy, and decides to go with the high bidder, Team A. 

At this point we can’t know Freddy’s true value, which will be revealed only after he plays out his contract. But as long as the teams’ scouts, coaches, and executives have any degree of competence, we know where his actual value would tend to be. Each team has its own biases and errors, and some will overestimate while some will underestimate his value. It’s very likely Freddy’s true value will lie somewhere between the high and low estimates.

Let’s say that over the course of his contract, Freddy’s true value turns out to be 6.2. Since Team A offered $7.1 million per year, and he was ‘truly’ worth only $6.2 million per year, Freddy was a disappointment on net, worth -$0.9 million per year.

This result was bound to happen. The team that most grossly overestimates a free agent’s value will very likely be the team that offers the most and win the auction. The upshot is that free agents tend to be signed by the teams that erred the most in predicting their true worth. That’s why free agent signings turn out so disappointing so often.

Known as The Winner’s Curse, this phenomenon is a well-documented characteristic of auction-style transactions. Whether the object of the auction is a part of the wireless frequency spectrum, licenses to drill for oil, or securing the rights to a Pro Bowl-caliber safety, the top bidder will likely be the one who most overestimates the value of the prize.

In truth, the Winner’s Curse applies strictly to “common value” auctions, where the prize would be of equal value to all bidders. This is rarely the case in reality, so to account for differing values to bidders, we can add a “synergy” factor to the mix. A player might be of particularly high worth to a team with a single ‘missing piece’, or a speedy pass-rushing linebacker might be of special value to a defense that plays a 3-4.

In the end, however, the synergy value of the prize is just as susceptible to overestimation as its common value. A free agents would be just as disappointing to his team, which would likely be the team that overestimated both the general value and the particular synergy he could bring. (Check out this applet that demonstrates the Winner’s Curse in action. You’ll notice that the synergy factor needs to be extremely high to escape the Curse.)

Once the top free agent is signed in any given year, the market is now ‘set’ for other lesser players. The Winner’s Curse tends to inflate the price of similar goods across the market place, creating a bubble. The real estate or stock markets may not be so different from the free agent market in the NFL. Which home buyer is going to be the one that ends up with that McMansion? The one who overestimates its value the most, that’s who. And with each inflated sale, all home prices inch up one more tiny notch, at least until a market correction comes along.

Bidders who are aware of the Curse can mitigate its effect by suppressing their bids below what they believe is the true value of the prize, a technique known as bid-shaving. This makes it less likely a bidder will end up overpaying, but it also makes it less likely the wise bidder will win the auction. The unsavvy bidder (such as Dan Snyder, perhaps) won’t shave his bids, and becomes that much more likely to win (and overpay for) the prize.

Perhaps the Winner’s Curse explains why top teams tend to build their starting lineups through the top rounds of the draft and not through free agency. It may also explain why draft picks might be better bargains than veteran free-agents with similar expected performance levels.

BY BRIAN BURKE


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Combine Preparation – Building the Perfect Beast

February 11, 2012 By Leave a Comment

More than just a “workout”

National Invitational Camp, NFL Combine, INDY Combine, The Combine.  What was once a “sub component” of draft preparation has now become a circled date on the NFL’s calendar of annual events.

There was a time when only a glancing eye was turned towards Indianapolis the middle of February.  But with the advent of its own TV Network and the need for 24/7 programming, the NFL has flipped what was once a “scouting workout” being televised, into a “televised workout” being scouted.

Gone are the days when coaches and scouts disappeared into the “Crossroads of America” for “A week of doing who knows what?”  This is “PRIME TIME” as Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com wrote this past February;

As if we needed any more evidence that the NFL is more popular than ever, the league today issued a press release touting all-time high ratings for the Scouting Combine on NFL Network.

A total of 6.6 million viewers watched the Combine on NFL Network this year, a 27 percent increase over the 5.2 million viewers last year. On Sunday, when the quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers were working out, an average of more than 400,000 people were watching at any given time.

Big Business

Make no mistake, this annual gathering is not big, but rather HUGE business.  The Chamber of Commerce of Indianapolis recognizes the financial impact of all 32 NFL clubs; their staff, coaches and personnel, along with the hoards of media, agents, players and fans descending for a week upon the shops, restaurants and hotels of the downtown Entertainment District.  Why do you think they’ve fought so hard to keep the event out of Miami, Dallas or Los Angeles?

Agents lobby long and hard to ensure their players are one of the some 350 invitees of the selection committee.  Exclusion is like being “voted off the island” and pundits immediately begin to place those “outsider” prospects into the 7th round or undrafted free agent status.

Crash course makeover

An entire “cottage industry” has spun off the medicals, interviews and on field workouts at Lucas Oil Stadium.  People with no affiliation or experience in pro football have created entire sub-careers surrounding combine preparation.  Former coaches, scouts and administrators have left the game and leveraged their knowledge of INDY to help agents with combine preparation.

In the recruiting process of elite athletes, agents are now EXPECTED to supply combine preparation through personal training for “fitness and drills”.  They hire tutors on the finer points of taking the Wonderlic Test, a common measurement of so-called “intelligence” by NFL clubs.  They are coached on the interview process; not only how to answer specific questions, but also tips on annunciation, body language and eye contact.  Some go as far as to visit the local tanning booth for a quick “bake” or “spray on” before their combine picture (wearing only official Under Armor workout shorts) is taken.

Agents understand they can be hired and fired over the course of the combine preparation process.  Remember, the draft is still two months away.  A bad showing and the blame falls somewhere.

What’s it worth?

The bigger question is, “What are we doing?”.  The original intent of the NFL Combine was to bring all the top prospects to one centralized location for a thorough physical using the “combined” medical resources of all 32 teams.  Since then, as a result of all the pre-draft hype, no chance is taken, no stone left unturned to ensure total combine preparation.

And what are the coaches and scouts ultimately seeing?  Is this an accurate representation of the player that caught a scout’s eye back in September or October?  Or is this rather a fabricated “placard of a player” hoping to dupe teams into drafting them higher than their actual worth?

 

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Life after football for NFL coaches & players – “What Off Season?”

February 7, 2012 By Leave a Comment

I’ve always found it amusing after the actual season ended (whether regular or through the playoffs) the perception of family, friends and fans as to “What do you do now?”  For most of those that casually follow the NFL, professional football is nothing more than Sunday afternoon reality television.  Their personal understanding goes no farther than the final score.  They realize there has to be a degree of preparation to bring such a complicated choreography of 22 players on to the field of play, but they have no inkling or interest in how that’s done.

A never ending carousel

Those more into the intricacies of the game clamor for any and everything 24/7.  These are the fans that know the stats, follow the draft, and can break down the incentives in a 5th round rookie contract (though rarely are there incentives).  Today’s NFL never sleeps.  Yeah, the Super Bowl is over, Eli Manning’s already been to Disney World and the debate rages on about Gisele’s comments, but 30 other teams had already been diligently preparing for the League’s other season – the Off Season.

This can be even more compelling and competitive than a Week 5 Arizona Cardinals vs St. Louis Rams game.  As for my career in Player Personnel, there was no off season.  My mother would politely tell our neighbors he’s off doing what he does in Mobile, or Indianapolis, or New York.  My wife would say I’ll see him sometime in May or June, and the resulting blank stare of disbelief would bring an internal chuckle to those in the know.

A time to recharge

For players it’s a time to regroup mentally and physically.  It’s the opportunity to leave the nest and spread “free agent” wings for million dollar paydays.  It’s a chance to have clean up surgeries or to heal from lingering injuries.  Many will start their own off season regimen in preparations for the official team conditioning program around April 1st.  Those with an understanding and an eye on “life after football” take the time to finish a few courses towards completion of their degrees.  Others will put effort into their foundations and charity work.

One thing’s for certain, the term “off season” is a misnomer.  As fast as Spring melts the Winter snow, NFL players find themselves back in their home cities preparing for OTA’s and Minicamps.  January, February, March…done.

A time to reassess

For coaches it can be just as arduous.  Many find themselves packing up boxes and saying goodbyes, the result of the club taking “a different direction”.  Hiring and firing in professional football is as certain as concussions and ACL tears, “They ain’t goin’ nowhere”.

By and large you’ll see most coaching staffs try to decompress with some “unofficial“ time off before the actual vacation period commences.  A day off here, a couple more there.  But most of the months following the end of the season are a quick cram course in personnel evaluations.

Now is the time coaches begin to dissect their own teams, looking for ways to improve on performance by perhaps adding a couple free agents and landing some quick contributing rookies.  They’ll go over their tendencies through “self scout” techniques and look for new ideas that might enhance the overall program.  But it’s their role in the personnel process that takes the most significant amount of time.

A time to reload

For clubs willing to allow their assistants input into draft and free agent evaluations, it’s a season’s worth of scouting rolled into sixty or ninety days.  Coaches compile their own abbreviated reports and perhaps assist in the construction of highlight tapes on perspective prospects.  They attend College All-Star games, the NFL Combine, College Pro Days and play a major role in rookie visits.  They’ll sit through the hours and hours of meetings to build the draft/free agent boards and give final thoughts in the selection process.

And almost as soon as “Mr. Irrelevant” is announced, immediately shift their focus back to all things X’s and O’s.  The days are full, though the hours are a bit less.  Pro football has become so much about out maneuvering, out flanking and out executing the opponent, that in many coaching minds the only way to succeed at this is to out work, out hustle and out think the rest of the League – in the s0-called Off Season.

And so it goes.

 

 

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Building the Patriots? A snap for any GM with Brady

January 26, 2012 By 1 Comment

To understand what the New England Patriots have accomplished over the past twelve years, you have to take into account a sense of their history forty years prior.  The “Patties”, as my former college roommate was so fond of calling his team, had only reached the playoffs a total of ten times in the previous four decades.  Their primary claim to fame?  Losing to Ditka’s “Super Bowl Shuffle” crew in 1985.

By 2000 a former Cleveland Browns head coach with four out of five losing seasons got his proverbial second chance.   Bill Belichick’s first season in New England was identical to his final in Cleveland, 5-11 and a last place finish in the division.

The consummate marriage

Belichick brought to Boston Bill Parcell’s son-in-law and a former colleague from Cleveland, Scott Pioli.  Pioli had been a Pro Personnel Assistant and later gone on to develop through the ranks under Parcells with the New York Jets.  He joined Belichick as Assistant Player Personnel Director and was elevated to Director of Player Personnel, then later Vice President.  There’s no General Manager title in the “Patriot Way” of doing business.  But those that understand how Personnel works in the NFL know that Pioli was de facto GM. (Nick Caserio now holds this title).

With the 199th selection, the Patriots take…

Belichick & Pioli’s initial draft was without a first rounder, but they were able to parlay 10 picks, three of which came in the 6th round and one with the 199th overall selection.  They took afterthought QB Tom Brady from the University of Michigan.  Chad Pennington, Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman, Tee Martin, Marc Bulger and Spergon Wynn were all selected ahead of the seventh QB taken.  “Luck” was a Patriot.  The 2000 New England draft produced only one significant starter from those ten selections, but it changed the franchise for the next decade.

Brady backed up longtime starter Drew Bledsoe, then an injury forced him into the lineup in 2001.  The rest is history; 5 Super Bowls, 3 Championships, 7 Pro Bowls, 2 First Team All-Pro selections, 124-35 career record.

What Brady brought to New England was an identity and consistency to build around.  The Belechick-Pioli General Manager tandem began to carve out an organization they felt best supported the skills of their new found franchise QB.  They used both their backgrounds to construct the “inner circle, outer circle” management style that fed information to the decision makers and all but shut out the rest.

A base to build upon

A mix of draft choices and free agent acquisitions maintained a consistent talent base around Brady.  Though often looked upon as “Masters of the Draft”, the Belichick/Pioli-Cesario General Manager tandem has had their equal share of “busts”.  Forgotten in the lore of the Patriots’ success is that players like Tedy Bruschi, Lawyer Malloy, Ty Law, Willie McGinnist, Terry Glenn, Troy Brown and Damien Woody were already on the roster by the 2000 season.  Free Agent signings and trades for the likes of Cory Dillon, Junior Seau, Randy Moss, Mike Vrabel and Wes Welker supplemented the club nicely. New England’s Draft Record, take an independent eye and compare/contrast with others.

To the General Manager tandem’s credit is a fairly solid record in the 1st & 2nd rounds; Seymour, Light, Branch, Warren, Wilfork, Mankins to name a few.

But the one constant has been Tom Brady and a team whose identity has never faltered or been questioned from within, despite the many pressures exerted from the outside.

All the best have one

The most relevant statistic correlating to NFL team success is Offensive Pass Efficiency (Net Yards Per Attempt).  Five of the top eight active leaders in this category have Super Bowl Rings; Rodgers, P. Manning, Brady, Brees & Roethlisberger.  Nine of the top thirteen in the history of the game have one or multiple rings.

Some might say there’s a tad bit of “the chicken or the egg” going on here.  But don’t underestimate the relevance of a franchise QB to the performance of any General Manager or Head Coach, even in New England.

 

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Many “Thanks” to the game of football

November 24, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Thanksgiving gives us all the chance to reflect on the people, places, things and experiences that have made us who we are.  I know we are all eternally grateful for the many blessings in our lives.  The game of football has meant so much to me (as I’m sure it has to you), so I thought I’d share some of those gridiron blessings with all of you;

  1. For the Dad’s Club YMCA having Youth Football for 8 to 9 year olds in 1970.
  2. For my parents (especially my mother) in hauling me around to youth football practice for gosh knows how many years.
  3. For the Westwood Oilers and the Northbrook Knights.
  4. For Bill Yeoman and the University of Houston; Elmo Wright, Gary Mullins, Robert Newhouse, D.C. Nobles, et al.  You guys inspired me.
  5. For the SWC allowing Houston to join, you broadened my football horizons.
  6. For Coach Charlie Maiorana (Spring Woods High School) , JV football taught me the true meaning of it all.
  7. For Head Coach Ben Bloomer (Spring Woods High School) and the splitback veer.
  8. For playing in Texas 17-4A where truly we experienced “Friday Night Lights” in the late ‘70’s.  Will never forget you TIGERS.
  9. For Stratfford and Memorial High Schools, our two games in ’78 & ’79 haunt me to this day.
  10. For Earl Campbell; hard to root for as a Longhorn, “Luv Ya Blue” as an Oiler.
  11. For Fred Goldsmith (Air Force), who came down to Houston and recruited the heck out of the area (and me).
  12. For the United States Air Force Academy, that gave me the opportunity to play Division IA football.
  13. For Head Coach Ken Hatfield, who saw the wisdom to install the wishbone in 1980 and giving me a chance to continue to dive off tackle as a freshman starter.
  14. For the University of Illinois defense, your inability to figure it out gave me the best game of my career.
  15. For Karl Grant and an inadvertent ACL tear, you gave me true humility.
  16. For Jim Conboy and the rest of the AF training/medical staff.  You got me back out there.
  17. For John Kershner, you pushed me every day to catch your butt and get my job back (even though I never did).
  18. For being a part of the final two minutes of our version of “The Drive” to beat BYU.
  19. For Jerry Faust, you gave me the opportunity to realize a dream,beating Notre Dame.
  20. For Cal beating Stanford on the crazy band play, you guys put us in our first bowl game against Vanderbilt (Hall of Fame ‘82).  We won.
  21. For not one, but two Commander-In-Chief’s trophies in ’82 & ’83.
  22. For a senior season that saw a 10-2 record and 13th National ranking.  The Independence Bowl win over Ole Miss and all my teammates that made it happen.
  23. For Fisher DeBerry and all he did to make me a better person and player, then allowing me to begin my football career as a G.A. in 1984.
  24. For football and bobsledding being so different and so much the same.
  25. For Coach DeBerry on the second “go round” asking me to return from Berlin, Germany to be on the staff of the Air Force Falcons.
  26. For the two years as Head Coach at the Air Force Academy’s Prep School and “Runnin’ Rabid”.
  27. For Cal McCombs insisting that I call the Denver Broncos and ask if I could help them out.
  28. For John Beake, giving me my first job as a Bronco at $6.00 an hour and commuting up from Colorado Springs.
  29. For Dan Reeves eventually allowing me to work my way back to Player Personnel.
  30. For Jerry Frei and Jack Elway, two of the greatest mentors a “rookie” could ever have.
  31. For Bob Ferguson, allowing me to stay on and start my NFL career in Player Personnel.
  32. For the chance to become Director of College Scouting at the then young age of 33.
  33. For realizing the thrill of not winning one, but two Super Bowl Championships ’97 & ’98.
  34. For Joe Bailey identifying my skills and desire to become a General Manager, interviewing with Ted Phillips (3 times) for the Chicago Bears’ job in ’01.
  35. For Arthur Blank and the Atlanta Falcons showing interest in me the following season.
  36. For Pat Bowlen recognizing all the hard work and my desire to remain a Bronco.   He promoted me to General Manager in ’02.
  37. For Jake Plummer, you never got the credit you deserved.
  38. For three straight years of double digit wins and runs to the playoffs, we almost got it done in ’05.
  39. For the Seattle Seahawks confirming our success and giving me the opportunity to interview for their President’s job (another 3 times) in ’06.
  40. For my agent Jack Mills (Ascent Sports) and the contract extension in ’06.
  41. For Mike Bluem, Chris Trulove, Dave Bratten and Pam Papsdorf.  You know why.
  42. For another lesson in humility in ’08.  Good bye Broncos.
  43. For Clark Hunt and the chance to interview for the Kansas City Chiefs GM position in ’08.  Still want that job.
  44. For Rick Mueller and the fledgling Omaha Knighthawks, what a great football town.
  45. For Maurice Clarett.  Very proud of you my friend.
  46. For Jed York and San Francisco 49ers, looks like you guys made the right choice.
  47. For the Falcon Pride Club, Air Force Academy Athletic Foundation and Head Coach Troy Calhoun.  You can always come home.
  48. For the Mountain Network and the “talking head” opportunity, continuing to have a blast.
  49. For those of you reading this on The Football Educator, I hope to continue to gain your trust.
  50. Wishing you a Happy Thanksgiving for 2011!

 

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6 Observations of Mountain West Football – Week 12

November 21, 2011 By Leave a Comment
  1. Great to see Tim Jefferson healthy for his last game at Falcon Stadium on Senior Day.  However, T.J.’s presence for the last 4 years transformed an Air Force option offense into a well balanced attack with a consistent passing game.  The big question is what will this part of the Falcon offense look like in 2012?
  2. Ronnie Hillman played sparingly in the Aztecs loss to Boise State at Qualcomm Stadium.  San Diego State’s offense has literally run through Hillman this past season and without senior QB Ryan Lindley in 2012, the Aztecs will need to find ways to keep Hillman healthy.  “The Kid’s” size and durability could become a question mark with NFL scouts down the road.
  3. The naming of Bob Davie as head coach at New Mexico was the kind of national “splash” the Lobos were hoping to make.  Davie was more than pointed in his press conference at the announcement and was adamant the culture would have to change.  He sighted discipline and hard work as the two key components to turning things around.  Anxious to see his definition in action.  Things have changed in the 10 years since he last walked the sidelines.
  4. CSU freshman Garrett Grayson may have started a QB controversy for the RAMS.  Grayson started against TCU in the place of injured Pete Thomas and looked effective at times.  He showed the kind of poise and control that has vaulted Wyoming’s own freshman QB Brett Smith into bowl eligibility with his Pokes.
  5. Speaking of, Smith was masterful in the second half against New Mexico.  His ability to run the football has created a dual threat at the position and perhaps a wrinkle that head coach Dave Christensen will work a little more into the offensive playbook for 2012.
  6. UNLV will have to shake the Jekyll and Hyde persona it has created in 2011 to have any chance of pulling themselves out of the MW basement in 2012.  The Rebels flashed brilliance against Hawaii & CSU in their only two wins of the season, and played Boise State tight for the first 30 minutes.  But the Rebels are last in penalties, last in 3rd down conversions, last in sacks allowed and last in long scrimmage plays.

 

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8 Observations from Mountain West Football – Week 11

November 16, 2011 By Leave a Comment
  1. The Alumni Weekend held at the Air Force Academy reminded me of what college football is really all about.  The camaraderie and friendships built over 50+ years of Academy football was amazing to once again experience.  There truly is a “Long Blue Line” intertwined through all of us.
  2. Though Boise State insists that this one loss does not define their program, it will stick with this senior class.  They will forever look back upon their loss to TCU and recall what might have been.  Having come off the experience at Air Force this weekend, we’re still talking about losing to Wyoming 14-7 in 1983.
  3. I called a TCU win on All-22 last week, citing a lack of confidence in the special teams for the Broncos in a close game.  It’s hard to imagine a legitimate National Champion candidate working in and around field goal attempts all season to win a ball game.  Ultimately they had to kick it and missed.
  4. Speaking of losing to Wyoming, Air Force lost QB Tim Jefferson early in the game after a QB sneak on 4th and goal from the 1 yard line.  Though Connor Dietz ran the option well at times, the lack of a passing game allowed the Cowboys to confidently bring down one more in the box and stop the big play runs of the Falcons.  I’ve also never seen a Falcon team in recent memory turn the ball over like Air Force does; 22 lost this season (2 games to go), while only 17 all of 2010, 12 in 2009, 17 in 2008 and 18 in 2007.
  5. The Cowboys lead the Mountain West at an amazing +14 in turnover margin, up from -2 in 2010.
  6. Chris Nwoke has 388 yards in the last two games and CSU has nothing to show for it.  The Rams have dropped two close ones, both by 3 points, and extended their losing streak to 5 games.  CSU has to be considered a disappointment for the Mountain West in 2011 (no bowling).
  7. San Diego State’s late October loss to Wyoming looms large over the Aztecs chances to finish in the top 3 in the Mountain West.  Windy conditions limited Ryan Lindley and the passing game against CSU.  I like the Aztec secondary as well as any in shutting down the Broncos this week.  Remember the game is in San Diego.
  8. Finally a HUGE shout out to George Barlow and the New Mexico Lobos.  They stood toe to toe with a team that they were equally matched but probably underdogs to in UNLV.  The win ensures not going “0-fer” with Wyoming and Boise State remaining on the schedule.

 

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Athletes don’t do the grunt work

November 10, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Ok, got some interesting feedback on the “Disloyal” article and thought I’d at least shoot over #2.  I’ve had this situation more within the office and working with in-house interns than on the football field.  There’s really no getting around “grunt work” as a player in the NFL, though some of the roles played on a roster can be “grunt like”.

But as I look at young people entering into the profession, I see a group highly motivated to move forward, but not wanting to stay in one place for very long.  I wrote an article on www.thefootballeducator.com called Model Scouting? “Mind your manners” that touches on this subject.  Also take a look at The “pecking order” of professional football front office management.

Remember to replace boss with coach, employer with team, and Gen Y or young person with player.  In this case it could also be a scout or office intern.

Bruce Tulgan’s Newsletter, June 23, 2011 issue – 281st edition

The number two myth about Generation Y is that they won’t do the grunt work.

They’ll do the grunt work. I promise you they will do the grunt work. They’ll do the grunt work very well, very fast, all day long.

They’re so eager to prove themselves to you, they’re so eager to prove themselves to others; they will do the grunt work. If you don’t believe me, follow me around sometime when I’m working with the United States Army. You want to see a bunch of young people do a bunch of grunt work? Spend a day with some soldiers.

They’ll do the grunt work, but there are two catches.

The first catch is they won’t do the grunt work or anything else in exchange for vague promises about long-term rewards that may or may not vest in the deep, distant future. No way.

The second catch is, they won’t do the grunt work if they start to fear that nobody’s keeping track; if they start to fear that they are out of mind. And when they’re out of sight for very long, they start to worry that they might be out of mind. One young person we interviewed was telling us, “They had me down in this deep, dark basement going through boxes and boxes of old documents” and he says, “You know I was down there for seven hours.” Are you with me? Not seven days, not seven weeks, not seven months; seven hours. He said, “I was down there all by myself in this deep, dark basement for seven hours going through all these boxes of documents and I started to wonder, does anyone know I’m down here?”

Seven hours is long enough for a Gen Yer to decide, “You know what? I don’t really like this job.” They will leave the basement, go out and get another job; try it out. They might even decide, “I like the first job better.” They’ll go back to the basement, they’ll come up at the end of the day and you’ll never even know they were gone. They’ll do the grunt work. They’ll do anything; but they want to know that somebody is keeping track, somebody is helping them keep score, somebody is giving them credit for all that grunt work they’re doing. “And by the way, exactly how much of this grunt work do I have to do in order to earn some more interesting tasks?”

 

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Like politics, “Flip Flopping” alive and well in NFL

November 7, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Don’t you wish it was this easy?  Shoulda, Woulda, Coulda’s in the NFL draft.  If a politician happens to change his mind on a particular issue, he immediately is labeled a “flip flopper” and is forced to defend his inability to maintain solid principles.  Sometimes this so called “change of heart” comes years after the fact, when time and experience has cleared the mind and opened the eyes.

In football it seems you can just go with the flow.  While General Manager of the Denver Broncos, we’d do a yearly Draft Retrospective that would go back three to five years and look at the play time and production of every prospect selected.  This enabled us to see if our own evaluations were spot on or dead off.  It gave us a sense of how we were stacking our board and was talent being left off or over hyped.

Don’t you wish they had a show that took the gurus predictions from three to five years ago and stacked them up with reality?

Gil Brandt is a Senior Analyst for NFL.com and had a distinguished career in the NFL with the Dallas Cowboys.  His work has been elevated to “guru” status and when Gil talks, people listen.  But even the greats will miss one now and then.

A few days ago I ran across on article looking at a 2011 Redraft.  Where would certain players fall today?  Brandt still had Cam Newton going to the Panthers with the first pick, but guess who was second?  Andy Dalton of TCU.  Cincinnati’s young rookie QB was Brandt’s choice for the Denver Broncos over Texas A&M’s Von Miller.

That alone wasn’t what caught my eye, but rather another article that was written back in February of this year.  Mindful that the Combine was already concluded as well.  Posted on NFL.com were Brandt’s top prospects of 2011 on ability alone.  Andy Dalton fell at #83, the 6th rated QB by the Senior Analyst.

Eight months later the former TCU great went from #83 to #2.  Didn’t take three to five years to figure that one out.  That’s a jump from the middle of the third round to #2 overall, in just eight months?  Those types of evaluations can get you fired in the NFL.

 

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